Criminological Scenarios of Crime Situation’s Transformation in the Context of Armed Conflict on Donbass in the Midterm
The article is focused on the study of crime transformation in Ukraine, depending on the probable course of the armed conflict on Donbass and the construction of criminological scenarios on its basis of changing its status. It has been noted that the construction of predictive criminological scenarios for changing the crime situation for the relevant time perspective is perspective for their use in the development of strategic program documents for the implementation of the state policy in the field of combating crime. To achieve this goal, the author of the paper has used appropriate methodological tools, which include: dialectical and general scientific methods of cognition (analysis, synthesis), as well as scripted methodology (expert and matrix approaches). It has been noted that the scriptural forecasting methodology is currently underused in domestic criminological research. It is considered relevant to understand the development of possible criminological scenarios of crime situation in Ukraine in terms of both changes in the course of the situation in the East of Ukraine, and taking into account the development of related problems in different spheres of public life (social, economic, political, military). Based on the use of scenario methodology, the author has formed six criminological scenarios (realistic, optimistic, negative – pessimistic) of the transformation of crime situation in the midterm (2019-2022). The author has expertly substantiated the highest probability of developing a crime situation in the midterm in the following three scenarios: “Stagnation and slight increase” (most realistic), “Control and security” (optimistic), “Turbulent crime” (negative). It has been proved that the development of probable criminological scenarios will depend on the intensity of external and internal threats to national security. Taking into account the available prognostic research in the military and political sphere and the results of own expert poll, we support the position of domestic experts that solution of the conflict on Donbass will remain in the stagnant form (“no war, no peace”) in the nearest future, which is going to affect the possibility of developing the most realistic and optimistic criminological scenarios.
The author has substantiated the possibility of taking into account various criminological scenarios for the development (correction) of crime impact strategies by law enforcement agencies as well as for the formation of the relevant state programs.
Tytarenko O.O., 2018. The use of the scenarios approach in the Formation and implementation of governmental policy in the sphere of counteraction crimes [Vykorystannia stsenarnoho pidkhodu pry formuvanni ta realizatsii derzhavnoi polityky v sferi protydii zlochynnosti]. Pìvdennoukraïnsʹkij pravničij časopis – South Ukrainian Law Journal, No. 4, part 1, pp. 68-71.
Mozol S.A., 2018. Criminological security in Ukraine [Kryminolohichna bezpeka v Ukraini]. Kharkiv: Konstanta.
Beschastnyi V.M., 2018. Theory and practice of criminological support for counteraction crime in Ukraine [Teoriia ta praktyka kryminolohichnoho zabezpechennia protydii zlochynnosti v Ukraini]. D.Sc. dissertation. Kharkiv National University of Internal Affairs.
Zghurovskyi M.Z. (manager), 2016. Foresight and building a strategy for socio-economic development of Ukraine in the medium-term (until 2020) and long-term (Until 2030) time horizons [Forsait ta pobudova stratehii sotsialno-ekonomichnoho rozvytku Ukrainy na serednostrokovomu (do 2020 roku) i dovhostrokovomu (do 2030 roku) chasovykh horyzontakh]. Kyiv: NTUU “KPI”; Politekhnika. Available at http://ied.kpi.ua/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/WDC-IASA-FORESIGHT-2016.pdf [Accessed 2 February 2019].
Trust in authorities in the East of Ukraine. UASCORE 2018 [Dovira do orhaniv vlady na Skhodi Ukrainy. UASCORE 2018]. [online] SCORE, Ukraine. Available at https://www.scoreforpeace.org/files/publication/pub_file//PRE_UKR18_TrustinAuthorUKR.pdf [Accessed 2 August 2019].
The level of trust in public institutions and the electoral orientation of Ukrainian citizens [Riven doviry do suspilnykh instytutiv ta elektoralni oriientatsii hromadian Ukrainy]. [online] Razumkov center. 20 February 2019. Available at http://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/riven-doviry-do-suspilnykh-instytutiv-ta-elektoralni-oriientatsii-gromadian-ukrainy [Accessed 2 August 2019].
A chance for change and a challenge for society: what to expect for Ukraine from the new Verkhovna Rada [Shans na zminy i vyklyk dlia suspilstva: choho chekaty Ukraini vid novoi Verkhovnoi Rady]. [online] Centre for Democracy and Rule of Law. 25 July 2019. Available at https://cedem.org.ua/news/verhovna-rada-new [Accessed 10 August 2019].
Goltsov A.H., 2017. Geostrategy of the Russian Federation regarding Ukraine: scenarios and options [Rosiiska heostratehiia shchodo Ukrainy: stsenarii ta varianty]. Strategìčnì prìoriteti – Strategic Priorities, [online] No. 4, pp. 155-159. Available at https://niss-priority.com/index.php/journal/article/view/44/43 [Accessed 2 August 2019].
National Institute for Strategic Studies, 2018. Secure dimension of financial policy of economic growth in Ukraine [Bezpekovyi vymir finansovoi polityky zabezpechennija ekonomichnoho zrostannia v Ukraini]. Kyiv: NISD. Available at https://niss.gov.ua/sites/default/files/2019-05/Dopovid_Bezpecov_vymir_fin_polityky.pdf [Accessed 2 August 2019].
Kuusi O., Smith H. and Tiihonen P. (eds), 2007. Russia 2017: three scenarios [Rossiya 2017: tri stsenariya]. [online] Eduskunta Riksdagen. Available at https://www.eduskunta.fi/FI/tietoaeduskunnasta/julkaisut/Documents/tuvjv_1+2007.pdf [Accessed 2 August 2019].
Podberezkin A.I., Aleksandrov M.V., Borishpolets K.P. et al., 2015. Strategic forecasting and planning of foreign and defense policy [Strategicheskoe prognozirovanie i planirovanie vneshnei i oboronnoi politiki]: in 2 vols. Vol. 2: Forecasting scenarios for the development of the international and military-political situation for the period up to 2050 [Prognozirovanie stsenariev razvitiya mezhdunarodnoi i voenno-politicheskoi obstanovki na period do 2050 goda]. Moscow: MGIMO-Universitet. Available at http://viperson.ru/uploads/attachment/file/949421/2_tom_web.pdf [Accessed 2 August 2019]. (Ed.: Podberezkin A.I.).
Strohii V.І., 2015. Security and defense sector of ukraine. POTENTIAL and real threats to public security [Sektor bezpeky і oborony Ukrainy. Potentsіinі ta realnі zahrozy u sferі derzhavnoi bezpeky]. Dnipropetrovsk: Dnіpropetrovskyi derzhavnyi universytet vnutrishnikh sprav; Lіra.
Horbulіn V., 2016. Five scenarios for ukrainian-russian relations [Piat stsenarіiv dlia ukraino-rosіiskykh vіdnosyn]. [online] ZN,UA. 19 June 2015. Available at https://dt.ua/internal/p-yat-scenariyiv-dlya-ukrayino-rosiyskih-vidnosin-_.html [Accessed 2 August 2019].
Sveshnikov S.V., Bocharnikov V.P., Penkovskiy V.І. and Kovalchuk P.A., 2016. Scenarios of possible development of regional military-political situation in the context of conflict on east of Ukraine [Stsenarіi mozhlyvoho rozvytku rehіonalnoi voienno-polіtychnoi obstanovky u kontekstі konflіktu na skhodі Ukrainy]. Zbìrnik naukovih pracʹ Centru voênno-strategìčnih doslìdženʹ Nacionalʹnogo unìversitetu oboroni Ukraïni – Research papers collection of the Center of military and strategic studies of the National Defence University of Ukraine named after Ivan Cherniahovskyi, [online] No. 1, pp. 81-88. Available at http://nbuv.gov.ua/j-pdf/Znpcvsd_2016_1_15.pdf [Accessed 2 August 2019].
National Institute for Strategic Studies, 2018. Analytical report to the Annual Message of the President of Ukraine to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine “On internal and external situation of Ukraine in 2018” [Analіtychna dopovіd do Shchorіchnoho Poslannia Prezydenta Ukrainy do Verkhovnoi Rady Ukrainy “Pro vnutrіshnie ta zovnіshnie stanovyshche Ukrainy v 2018 rotsі”]. Kyiv: NISD. Available at https://niss.gov.ua/sites/default/files/2019-02/Analit_Dopovid_Poslannia_2018.pdf [Accessed 2 August 2019].
DPR and LPR opposed the sending of the OSCE police mission to Donbass [DNR i LNR vystupili protiv otpravki politseiskoi missii OBSE v Donbass], 2016. [online] Interfax. 24 May 2016. Available at https://www.interfax.ru/world/509763 [Accessed 1 August 2019].
MFA: Russia blocks the deploying of UN Peacekeepers in the Donbass [MZS: Rosiia blokuie vvedennia myrotvortsiv OON na Donbas], 2017. [online] NV.UA. 25 August 2017. Available at https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/politics/mzs-rosija-blokuje-vvedennja-mirotvortsiv-oon-na-donbas-1734776.html [Accessed 1 August 2019].
Razumkov Center, 2018. Russian-Ukrainian conflict: prospects and parameters of UN Peacekeeping Mission in Donbass [Rossiisko-ukrainskii konflikt: perspektivy i parametry mirotvorcheskoi missii OON na Donbasse]. Cadenabbia, 14-17 August. Kyiv: Zapovit. Available at https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=8b1c9437-39c0-6f33-c562-91ce18446709&groupId=252038 [Accessed 1 March 2019].
Copyright (c) 2019 О. О. Titarenko
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.